Chokepoint
Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea
Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal
The Bab el-Mandeb strait is the southern gate of the Red Sea, roughly 30 kilometres wide at its narrowest. Everything moving between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal passes through it. UNCTAD records the Suez route as normally carrying around 22 per cent of global container traffic; attacks on commercial shipping from late 2023 onward pushed most carriers onto the far longer route around southern Africa, and Suez transits were still around 70 per cent below 2023 levels as of November 2025.
What passes through it
- Asia–Europe container services, the single largest trade lane by container volume
- Crude oil and refined products moving from the Gulf towards Europe
- Vehicle carriers and project cargo on the same corridor
Typical disruption
- Attacks on commercial vessels, and the threat of them
- War-risk insurance premiums rising to the point where a transit stops making commercial sense
- Naval escort arrangements being introduced, changed or withdrawn
- Vessels switching off AIS transponders while transiting
The alternative, and what it costs
Around the Cape of Good Hope. The ITF/OECD and UNCTAD both put the additional transit at roughly 10 to 14 days on Asia–Europe sailings, with an increase of around 3,500 nautical miles per round trip and substantially higher fuel consumption.
What this means for your suppliers
If your supplier ships from Asia to Europe, assume this lane is affected until proven otherwise. The added transit is not a risk to monitor but a cost already being paid.
The decision that matters is whether to pre-book the longer route while capacity is available, or wait and take what is left. Insurance premiums usually move before carriers announce anything.
Orders already at sea are not recoverable by rerouting. For those, the useful action is telling the customer early and re-planning around the new date.
Other chokepoints
The rest of the map
See it against your own lanes
We load a sample of your suppliers, run a live scenario, and show which orders would slip.